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By working with Russia to hold talks with Iran, China is conveying a contrast with the United States in its approach to resolving the nuclear issue, said Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai. Beijing wants to show that “while the United States irresponsibly pulls out of the Iran Nuclear Agreement, China will also hold fast to this international commitment and assume the responsibility of leadership,” Mr. Shen said.
The message is also one of solidarity with Iran. “Even though the United States exerts extreme pressure, as long as Iran does not give up on its relevant commitments, it will still have friends,” Mr. Shen said. “Iran doesn’t need to worry. In the end, this is a strategic game between China and the United States.”
After Mr. Trump suggested that Iran negotiate over its nuclear program or face potential military action, Iran’s supreme leader decried “bullying governments” and seemed to push back on the idea of negotiating with the United States. China and Russia’s support could help Iran seem less isolated, but Tehran might have concerns, as well.
“The Iranians, for their part, are very wary of Chinese, but especially of Russian involvement in negotiations, as they fear they will be sold out by Moscow as part of a broader U.S.-Russia accord,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group. “They will be looking for support from Russia while resisting any pressure to give in to U.S. demands.”
China has considerable leverage over Iran: Chinese companies purchased over 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports last year, often at deep discounts to world prices, according to Kpler, a Vienna-based company that specializes in tracking Iran’s oil shipments. Most other countries have refrained from buying oil from Iran so as to comply with Western-led sanctions aimed at persuading Iran to stop its development of nuclear weapons.
Sales by Iran’s state oil company to China represent about 6 percent of Iran’s entire economy, or half of government spending in Iran.
David Pierson contributed reporting from Beijing.
