Umair
CRYPTO REPORTS
Cycles always work? When break and restart?
This crypto market cycle is different. That’s what everyone has been saying. Even those who’ve kept quiet feel like it’s true. As a result, it’s slowly becoming the consensus view. But why is that? What exactly is it about this market that makes it feel so different? And more importantly, does this mean that the top is in, or does it mean it’s still coming?
Today, we’re going to take a look at why this cycle feels different, why it may not be as different as it seems, and what comes next.
Crypto 4 Year Cycle Explained
Historically, the crypto market has followed a 4-year cycle. This 4-year cycle is driven by a combination of crypto factors and macro factors. On the crypto side, it’s the Bitcoin halving, wherein the supply of new BTC is cut in half every four years. On the macro side, it’s the global liquidity (aka money supply) cycle, which is driven by debt refinancing, wherein debt needs to be refinanced every four to five years.
This creates a 4-year cycle wherein crypto prices rise for one to two years, with the largest gains coming at the end of this bullish period, followed by two to three years of prices falling, with the largest losses happening in the first year of this bearish period. In fact, prices have historically bottomed roughly one year after they hit new all-time highs, and this bottom is typically caused by a big default on crypto debts.
