Umair
And why haven’t you made any money yet?
After all, all you had to do was go all-in on SOL in 2023, then rotate fully into BONK, then into WIF, exit into stablecoins in April, move everything into Hyperliquid and farm points, then buy into ai16z at $80K FDV, then enter Virtuals in November, claim your million-dollar airdrop in Hyperliquid, hold until $HYPE reached $30, sell it, take profits on all AI coins before the first dump, wake up at 6 AM on January 18 and go all-in on $TRUMP, only to sell for a 10x return a day later.
Congratulations! Following these simple steps, you could have turned $1 into $120,055,500,000.
But I suspect that, for most people, the reality of this cycle looked quite different.
It was full of constant swings, headaches, capital rotations, and the rapid obsolescence of narratives every single week. And let’s not forget the biggest liquidation event in crypto history just a few days ago.
And that’s just how it is.
Every new cycle is harder than the last. This was known in 2021, and probably in 2017 as well. Each time, competition increases, experience levels rise, and fewer people make it than before.
Yet, every time, this fact comes as a surprise.
You can, of course, keep hoping for a new altseason, another 2021-like boom, a market where everything pumps indiscriminately.
But I think that kind of scenario is unlikely to happen again.
And there’s a mathematical reason for that.
Take a look at the total crypto market cap across the last three bull runs:
- December 2016: $16B → December 2017: $535B (33x)
- March 2020: $177B → October 2021: $2.62T (15x)
- December 2022: $756B → January 2025: $3.45T (4.5x)
For context:
- The market cap of Apple, the most valuable company in the world, is $3.43T.
- Crypto’s total market cap is now bigger than the world’s largest company.
- Crypto’s market cap is equal to the GDP of India, France, or the UK. If crypto were a country, it would be the 5th largest economy in the world (even if this comparison is flawed).
The only major milestone left? Gold.
Gold’s market cap is $19T. (For comparison, the entire U.S. stock market is $62T.)
To surpass gold, crypto needs to 5x from current levels. But that’s three times less growth than we saw in the last cycle.
Even if crypto overtakes gold, the total market would only grow 5x — far less than what we experienced in 2021. It won’t even feel the same as before.
That’s the big question. And the answer is: not in the way people think.
This is why we’re not seeing and won’t see the kind of explosive growth we had in 2021.
Adoption has already happened.
Crypto’s innovation and growth are no longer 0 → 1. It’s more like 1 → 1.2.
- The President of the U.S. is launching his own tokens.
- The most powerful governments in the world are seriously discussing crypto adoption.
- We’ve already got two Bitcoin ETFs.
Everything people dreamed about in 2021 has already happened.
So what’s left to fuel another full-scale market revolution?
Maybe the adoption of Bitcoin as a global reserve asset — but even that would only bring a 5x market-wide boost (or likely less).
Or perhaps the rise of AI agents that drive exponential economic growth and rely on crypto. But that’s still science fiction.
Of course not.
These numbers apply to the market as a whole, not to individual sectors.
There are still huge opportunities in crypto. You can still find winning narratives, master meme trading, launch tokens, farm airdrops, and profit massively.
Crypto remains the industry with the most asymmetric upside and earning potential for the next few years.
But not for everyone.
The era of random people stumbling into StepN and making six figures is fading.
This upside is now reserved for skilled players — founders, experienced traders, degens.
Simply being early is no longer enough.
A year and a half ago, crypto was still just a casino on Mars (IYKYK).
Now? It’s a fully-fledged Martian city.
Still open to Earth’s adventurers, but now hiring only those who can find their edge.
And hopefully, that includes you.
